"A cloud on the Cuomo horizon: Rudy Giuliani, who has been steadily improving his performance against the AG"
Today's Siena poll does not bring good news for Gov. David Paterson, with his favorable and job approval ratings still at near-record lows and recipe for resurrection nearly unattainable.
Paterson's favorable/unfavorable split is 27-61 (29-59 last month), while his job approval is 19-79 (18-80 last month). He has now had nine consecutive months of a favorable rating below 40 percent and eight of a job approval rating below 25 percent.
More than half of voters polled said they would be less likely to vote for Paterson in 2010 if he balances the state budget with significant cuts in health care and education - something he has already proposed in his $3 billion mid-year deficit reduction plan and likely won't be able to avoid more of, since those two areas make up the bulk of state spending.
Fifty-three percent said they would be more likely to support the governor if he manages to pull off a balanced budget without raising taxes.
Both Paterson and legislative leaders have insisted tax hikes are not in the cards, but some of them - including the governor - said that last year too, and then ended up with a temporary PIT increase (AKA: The millionaire's tax).
If Paterson can somehow improve the state's economy between now and next November, 54 percent of his constituents say they'll be more inclined to support him.
The likelihood of a quick turnaround? Not high.
In the meantime, nearly three quarters of New York voters - including two-thirds of Democrats and 56 percent of African Americans - would prefer to elect "someone else" in 2010. That's 72 percent - the highest ever in a Siena poll.
AG Andrew Cuomo's favorable/unfavorable rating continues to be in the stratosphere (67-20), and 49 percent say they want him to run for governor (that's up slightly from 47 percent last month).
In a hypothetical head-to-head match-up, Cuomo beats Paterson, 70-20 - up from 66-20 in September.
"By every measure, voters continue to keep Governor Paterson in the electoral cellar, and by every measure, Paterson’s numbers are within a handful of points or less of his all time record lows," said Siena poll spokesman Steve Greenberg.
"...A potential Democratic primary is now less than a year away, and while a year is a political lifetime, the hill that the Governor must climb is incredibly steep."
A cloud on the Cuomo horizon: Rudy Giuliani, who has been steadily improving his performance against the AG. Cuomo is still ahead - 50-43 - but it was 52-39 in September and 53-40 in August.
And Giuliani's favorable/unfavorable rating is creeping up, too. It's at 60-35 now, although the poll was just wrapping up when his comments Sunday.
Thirty-two percent now say they'd like to see Giuliani run for governor, while 21 percent want him to take on Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (who still has a "who's she" problem, with a 28-26 favorable/unfavorable split and 46 percent without an opinion) and 43 percent want him to avoid a comeback altogether.
Giuliani would beat Gillibrand, 53-36, while former Gov. George Pataki is leading her 46-41 (that's his highest point to date; last month he was ahead 42-39).
Rick Lazio, the only declared candidate for governor on the GOP side, remains a relative unknown (favorable/unfavorable/don't know: 23-27, 50), and would lose to either Cuomo (66-21) or Paterson (but not by much there, 39-37).
As for the Senate, 46 percent of New Yorkers now say they would prefer "someone else" to their current representative, whoever that may be. While 40 would vote to re-elect the incumbent. Last month, it was 45-38.
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