Rudy rapidly closing in on Cuomo

The results of two polls released last week paint a grim picture for Gov. David A. Paterson's 2010 re-election bid, with pollsters saying his only hope is that either the economy improves or the state is able to balance its budget without increasing taxes.

The approval ratings among likely voters continued to come in at record lows for Paterson, according to the results garnered by two polling institutions.

Siena Research Institute released its poll results last Tuesday and Quinnipiac University released its results the following day. Both had similar numbers for Paterson's approval ratings and both also showed former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani maintaining a steady rise in his lead over Paterson and losing by a smaller margin to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in a hypothetical governor's race.

"The only good news for Gov. Paterson is that he doesn't lose to Rick Lazio," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Quinnipiac's polling data showed Paterson tied, 38 to 38 percent, race with the former Long Island congressman and only Republican to officially announce his candidacy for governor.

"While the governor cannot control the economy, he does have a major say on the state's budget," said Siena New York pollster Steven Greenberg in a prepared statement. "More than half of voters say they would be less likely to vote for Paterson if he balances the state budget with significant cuts in health care and education, and 53 percent would be more likely to vote for him if the budget is balanced without tax increases."

While it can be arguably good budget policy to make cuts in health care and education, said Greenberg, most voters don't agree with these cuts. "Voters don't want to see tax increases and voters don't want to see cuts in the largest parts of the state budget."

Carroll also commented on his poll's findings on the support for various candidates along racial lines. "If there's a racial issue in a matchup between Gov. David Paterson and Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, these numbers don't show it. Black Democrats back Cuomo hands down, and black voters in general give Cuomo better grades than the governor on every measure — even in a race against Mayor Rudolph Giuliani."

Overall, Siena's poll showed just 27 percent of those surveyed having a favorable opinion of Paterson, which is a slight decline from the 29 percent of last month, and 61 percent giving him an unfavorable rating. Quinnipiac's poll nearly echoed those figures with Paterson having a 28 percent favorable rating.

For nine months now Paterson's favorable rating has been below 40 percent in Siena polls, with Quinnipiac polls showing a similar trend for the past seven months.

Still, there was a difference between the two polls when it came to the public's opinion of Paterson's job performance, with just 18 percent of Siena's respondents saying he is doing a good job, 43 percent saying he is doing a fair job and 36 percent telling pollsters they believe the governor is doing a poor job. Quinnipiac found 30 percent approved of the governor's job performance, while 57 percent disapprove of how he is running the state.

As Paterson loses favorability, Giuliani's favorability has stayed stable and not dipped below 55 percent in more than 11 months in Siena polls. Siena's poll also shows Giuliani having 60 percent favorability rating and beating Paterson in a hypothetical race with 56 percent of those polled voting for Giuliani.

Siena also had Cuomo leading 50 to 43 percent in a hypothetical race against Giuliani. Quinnipiac's poll had that race at 50 to 40 percent in Cuomo's favor.

Siena's poll showed Cuomo having a favorable-unfavorable rating of 67-20 percent, with Quinnipiac's numbers coming in at 61-13 percent.

Quinnipiac's survey of 2,367 registered voters was conducted Oct. 14-19 and has an overall margin of error of 2 percentage points. The Siena poll, conducted Oct. 14-18, included telephone calls for 624 registered voters, and the results of a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.

The complete results of the polls can be found online at www.siena.edu/sri and www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml.